A “very sizeable increase” in the number of surgeons working in Ireland is required by 2038 to keep pace with demographic changes and patient needs, the National Clinical Lead of the National Clinical Programme for Surgery has said.
Mr Ken Mealy, a Consultant General Surgeon, was speaking at the HSE National Doctors Training and Planning (NDTP) workforce conference in Dublin earlier this month. Mr Mealy launched the NDTP’s new report Surgery Medical Workforce in Ireland 2024-2038.
Speaking to conference attendees, he said there were approximately 673 consultant surgeons working in the public and private sectors. According to the new NDTP report, this number will need to increase to 1,108 by 2038.
Mr Mealy told the Medical Independent (MI) that the biggest challenge to achieving this increase is “funding”.
“The funding of [new] consultants… and the funding for the training programme so that we are able to train these doctors – I think that’s the big challenge,” he told MI.
Mr Mealy said it was important to have “certainty” from the health service on funding, noting that it often took 12-to-14 years to train a surgeon.
He said that funding certainty would allow the training body to plan appropriately.
“But it would also allow young doctors [to] make conscious decisions that they want to be a particular type of surgeon, knowing that there will be a consistent number of those surgeons appointed in the next 10-to-15 years,” he said.
The NDTP document noted that a significant increase in recruitment to postgraduate training programmes and in consultant numbers will be required in the coming years. This expansion is needed to deliver levels of care “appropriate to the future population of Ireland”.
The report stated this increase should occur in conjunction with a reduction in the number of non-training scheme doctor (NTSD) posts in the healthcare system.
“Currently, the NDTP is working with a number of training bodies and clinical sites across medicine/surgery to identify NTSD posts that can be converted to training posts,” according to the report.
The report projected that if the recommendations were implemented, the ratio of consultant surgeons per 100,000 population would increase from around 13.2 in 2023 to 16 by 2030 and 19.5 by 2038.
In his foreword to the report, Mr Mealy also noted that there were many uncertainties in predicting workforce projections.
These included the uncertainty in future predictions for private practice; the projected role expansion within nursing and possible development of physician associate and other healthcare roles; the persistent challenge in improving the consultant-to-NCHD ratio; and addressing changes in rostering and shift patterns, and less than full-time working.
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